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Issues
Manpower
Heading for a shortage of manpower?
In April 2002, the Québec Forest Industries Association (AIFQ), which has since merged with the Quebec Lumber Manufacturers Association (AMBSQ) to form the Québec Forest Industry Council (QFIC), conducted a survey on manpower among its 16 member companies. In particular, this survey was aimed at determining what proportion of the current workforce would be likely to retire over the next five years.
Together, these 16 companies own 54 pulp, paper, and cardboard mills in Québec, and alone produce 97% of the entire output in this sector of the Québec economy.
Altogether, 49% of Human Resources Directors took part in this survey. In particular, the results showed that approximately 20% of pulp and paper mill staffs could retire in the next five years. This proportion is twice as high?i.e., 40%?when the timeline is extended to ten years.
Considering the scale of the anticipated retirements soon to occur in the pulp and paper industry, a fundamental question arises as to whether a sufficiently sizeable succession will be available to hold the positions that will at some pointbecome vacant. On this score, two variables are particularly worrisome.
First of all, the number of enrolments in programs dedicated to the pulp and paper sector has significantly declined over the last several years?a trend mirrored in many other courses of study. For school year 2000-2001, this drop could even be as high as 50% in some tracks.
Secondly, the admissions at sector-associated educational institutions are limited in number. At this time, six schools provide training leading to a vocational school diploma in pulp and paper production. They are able to admit 36 students each, for a total of 216. Only one institution of learning offers the Diploma of Collegial Studies (DCS) in pulp and paper technologies, and admits a maximum of 48 students annually. In the case of tracks leading to the Attestation of Collegial Studies in pulp and paper, the number of groups varies depending on the demand in a given region. Taking into account the maximum number of students per group, the average number of diplomas awarded over the last several years, and the graduate placement rate, it has been estimated that a total of approximately 150 students will be available for hiring throughout Québec between 2001 and 2003. An additional factor entering into the employment equation is the coming competition between various industrial sectors that are keen to recruit new graduates.
Be this as it may, assuming that the total number of jobs in the pulp and paper industry will not vary much over the next five years, it is quite likely that the sector will be confronted with a shortage of manpower during this time. Thus, while the number of jobs is seen as remaining generally stable, it would be surprising indeed if all 4 700 positions (20% of the current workforce) expected to become open following retirements could be filled in as short a period as five years. Such a scenario is all the more improbable in that several other industrial sectors are also confronted with a shortage of manpower and will be attempting to attract many of the same qualified prospects of interest to the pulp and paper industry.
Nevertheless, the information gathered during this short survey supports the conclusion that a significant number of retirements is anticipated in the next several years?that is, approximately 4 700 (or 20% of the workforce) within five years, and 9 400 (or 40%) within ten years. This situation is likely to spell a labour shortage in the short term, particularly once other factors are taken into consideration, such as the limited number of graduates from pulp and paper-related programs of study, and the strong inter-sectoral competition for skilled manpower, as has already begun to emerge from such fields as engineering or various technological applications.
